Leveraging Wisely

善用槓桿 (Leverage)

Leverage is a force multiplier for judgment. If you know how to use it correctly, it can generate outsized returns in investing, launching businesses, building startups, and personal growth. But leverage amplifies the good and the bad equally — so understanding risk management is absolutely essential.

槓桿是判斷力的力量倍增器。如果能知道如何正確使用槓桿，可以在投資、開店、創業、精進個人等所有事情上產生不成比例的回報。但槓桿同時放大好的與壞的——所以理解風險管理至關重要。

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1. Financial Leverage

1. 金融槓桿

1.1 Margin Trading

1.1 融資交易 (Margin Trading)

How it works: You borrow money to buy more securities, using existing assets in your brokerage account as collateral.

運作方式： 用券商帳戶中的資產作為抵押品，借錢買更多證券。

Asset Class	Margin Requirement	Leverage Ratio
Stocks (Reg T)	50% initial margin	~2x
Futures (e.g. crude oil)	~20% initial margin	~5x
Forex	2-3% margin	20-50x

資產類別	保證金要求	槓桿倍數
股票（Reg T）	50% 初始保證金	~2x
期貨（如原油）	~20% 初始保證金	~5x
外匯	2-3% 保證金	20-50x

Amplification in action:

• A stock bought on 50% margin goes up 50% → your return is 100% (2x amplification)
• But if it drops 20% → your loss is 50% (2.5x amplification)

放大效果範例：

• 用 50% 保證金買入的股票上漲 50% → 你的報酬是 100%（2 倍放大）
• 但如果下跌 20% → 你的虧損是 50%（2.5 倍放大）

Margin Call: When account equity falls below maintenance margin (NYSE minimum 25%, most brokers require 30-40%), the broker demands you deposit more funds or sell positions within 2-5 days — otherwise your positions get liquidated.

保證金追繳 (Margin Call)： 當帳戶權益跌破維持保證金（NYSE 最低 25%，多數券商要求 30-40%），券商要求你在 2-5 天內補錢、賣出部位，否則被強制平倉。

Current landscape: As of late 2025, U.S. margin debt hit an all-time high of $1.2 trillion, plus $250 billion in leveraged ETFs. The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report flagged this as a "notable vulnerability."

現況： 截至 2025 年底，美國融資餘額達到歷史新高 $1.2 兆，加上 $2,500 億的槓桿 ETF。聯準會的金融穩定報告將此標記為「值得注意的脆弱性」。

1.2 Leveraged ETFs

1.2 槓桿 ETF (Leveraged ETFs)

How they work: These funds use derivatives (primarily Total Return Swaps) to deliver 2x or 3x the daily return of a benchmark index. The leverage is rebalanced every day.

運作方式： 使用衍生品（主要是 Total Return Swaps）來提供基準指數每日報酬的 2 倍或 3 倍。每天重新調整槓桿。

Volatility Decay — The Critical Risk:

波動衰減 (Volatility Decay) — 關鍵風險：

A concrete example:

• Benchmark drops 5% ($1.00 → $0.95), the 3x ETF drops 15% (→ $0.85)
• Next day the benchmark recovers 5.26% back to $1.00, the 3x ETF gains 15.79% to $0.984
• The benchmark is back to even, but the 3x ETF has lost 1.6%

具體例子：

• 基準下跌 5%（$1.00 → $0.95），3x ETF 下跌 15%（→ $0.85）
• 基準隔天回漲 5.26% 回到 $1.00，3x ETF 上漲 15.79% 到 $0.984
• 基準回到原點，但 3x ETF 虧損了 1.6%

The mechanism: daily rebalancing forces the fund to "buy high, sell low" — increasing exposure on up days and decreasing it on down days.

機制：每日再平衡迫使基金「追高殺低」——上漲日加碼、下跌日減碼。

Optimal leverage ratio: Based on 135 years of U.S. market data, the optimal leverage for maximizing long-term returns is approximately 2x (not 1x, not 3x). Beyond 2x, volatility decay erodes returns at an accelerating rate.

最佳槓桿倍數： 根據 135 年美國市場數據，最大化長期報酬的最佳槓桿約為 2x（不是 1x 也不是 3x）。超過 2x，波動衰減侵蝕報酬的速度加快。

Monte Carlo simulation results: A 2x leveraged equity ETF over a 10-year holding period only amplifies annualized returns by about 1.4x (not 2x), while risk (standard deviation) fully doubles, and extreme downside outcomes can be amplified by 4x.

Monte Carlo 模擬結果： 2x 槓桿股票 ETF 在 10 年持有期間，實際只能放大年化報酬約 1.4 倍（非 2 倍），但風險（標準差）完全翻倍，極端負面報酬可放大 4 倍。

1.3 Options as Leverage

1.3 選擇權槓桿 (Options as Leverage)

A single options contract controls 100 shares. A $1,000 options position can give you $10,000 worth of stock exposure.

一份選擇權合約控制 100 股。$1,000 的選擇權投資可能取得 $10,000 的股票曝險。

Leverage calculation (Lambda): Lambda = (Delta x Stock Price) / Option Price

槓桿計算（Lambda）： Lambda = (Delta x 股價) / 選擇權價格

Example: A deep in-the-money (Deep ITM) call with Delta 0.9, stock at $100, option priced at $10 → leverage of 9x.

例：深度價內 (Deep ITM) 買權，Delta 0.9，$100 股票，選擇權 $10 → 槓桿 9 倍。

Key risks: Options can expire completely worthless, time value erodes daily (Theta Decay), and sellers can face theoretically unlimited risk.

關鍵風險： 選擇權到期可能全額歸零、時間價值每天衰減 (Theta Decay)、賣方可能面臨無限風險。

1.4 Real Estate Leverage

1.4 房地產槓桿

The math of 5x leverage:

• $100,000 property with 20% down payment ($20,000)
• Property appreciates 10% = $10,000 gain
• Return on your equity: $10,000 / $20,000 = 50% return — that's 5x unlevered

5 倍槓桿的數學：

• $100,000 房產，付 20% 頭期款 ($20,000)
• 房價漲 10% = 獲利 $10,000
• 以你的自有資金計算：$10,000 / $20,000 = 50% 報酬——是無槓桿的 5 倍

The power of diversification:

• Instead of using $100,000 to buy one property outright, use it as 20% down payments on five properties
• Risk is now spread across 5 different assets

分散投資的力量：

• 同樣 $100,000 現金，與其全額買一間房，可以當成 5 間房的 20% 頭期款
• 風險分散到 5 個不同資產

Why real estate leverage beats stock margin:

• Banks will lend up to 80% at relatively low interest rates
• No margin calls — even if the property drops in value, the bank won't force you to sell
• Fixed-rate mortgages = payments stay flat while inflation erodes your debt and rents rise
• Downside: a 10% property price decline = 50% equity wipeout

房地產槓桿 vs 股票槓桿的優勢：

• 銀行願意貸到 80%，利率相對低
• 沒有 margin call——即使房價下跌，銀行不會強制你賣房
• 固定利率房貸 = 還款金額固定，但通膨侵蝕債務、租金上漲
• 缺點：房價跌 10% = 權益跌 50%

Tax advantages:

• Mortgage interest deduction (on up to $750,000 of qualifying mortgage debt)
• Depreciation: residential over 27.5 years, commercial over 39 years — "paper losses" that reduce taxable income
• 1031 Exchange: indefinitely defer capital gains taxes
• Pass-through entity deduction: up to 20% of qualified business income
• Operating expense deductions: insurance, property taxes, repairs, management fees

稅務優勢：

• 房貸利息扣除（最高 $750,000 的合格房貸債務）
• 折舊：住宅 27.5 年、商用 39 年——「帳面虧損」降低應稅所得
• 1031 交換：無限期遞延資本利得稅
• 過渡實體扣除：最高 20% 的合格商業所得
• 營運費用扣除：保險、房產稅、維修、管理費

1.5 The Kelly Criterion

1.5 Kelly Criterion（凱利公式）

Formula: f* = (bp - q) / b

• b = odds (profit when you win / loss when you lose)
• p = probability of winning
• q = probability of losing (= 1 - p)

公式： f* = (bp - q) / b

• b = 賠率（贏時獲利 / 輸時虧損）
• p = 贏的機率
• q = 輸的機率（= 1 - p）

Example: Win rate 55%, payout odds 1.5:1 → Kelly = 25% (you should wager 25% of your bankroll each time)

範例： 勝率 55%、賠率 1.5:1 → Kelly = 25%（每次應下注本金的 25%）

In practice, use "Fractional Kelly":

實務上用「分數 Kelly」：

Version	% of Full Kelly	Growth Rate	Risk Profile
Full Kelly (100%)	100%	Optimal	Very high volatility
Half Kelly (50%)	50%	~75% of optimal growth	Significantly reduced drawdowns (preferred by most professionals)
Quarter Kelly (25%)	25%	~50% of optimal growth	Low volatility

版本	佔 Full Kelly 比例	成長率	風險
Full Kelly (100%)	100%	最優	非常高波動
Half Kelly (50%)	50%	~75% 最優成長	顯著降低回撤（多數專業人士偏好）
Quarter Kelly (25%)	25%	~50% 最優成長	低波動

Notable practitioners: Ed Thorp (made millions at blackjack and in the markets), Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund).

知名使用者： Ed Thorp（在 21 點和市場中賺了數百萬）、Jim Simons（Renaissance Technologies Medallion Fund）。

1.6 Risk of Ruin

1.6 破產風險 (Risk of Ruin)

Position sizing changes everything:

部位大小改變一切：

Trader	Win Rate	Payout Odds	Risk per Trade	Probability of Ruin
A	60%	1.5:1	10%	25%
B	60%	1.5:1	2%	0.1%

交易者	勝率	賠率	每次風險佔本金	破產機率

| A | 60% | 1.5:1 | 10% | 25% | | B | 60% | 1.5:1 | 2% | 0.1% |

Same edge, but Trader A's ruin probability is 250x that of Trader B.

同樣的優勢，但 A 的破產機率是 B 的 250 倍。

Quick reference:

• Risk 1% per trade: can survive 100+ consecutive losses
• Risk 5% per trade: 20 consecutive losses and you're done
• Risk 10% per trade: 10 consecutive losses and you're done

速查表：

• 每次風險 1%：可承受 100+ 次連續虧損
• 每次風險 5%：20 次連續虧損就完蛋
• 每次風險 10%：10 次連續虧損就完蛋

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2. Business / Entrepreneurial Leverage

2. 事業 / 創業槓桿

2.1 OPM and OPT

2.1 OPM 與 OPT

OPM (Other People's Money):

• Bank loans, lines of credit
• Equity financing (selling shares to investors)
• Crowdfunding
• OPR (Other People's Resources): shared or bartered services, equipment, venues

OPM (Other People's Money) — 用別人的錢：

• 銀行貸款、信用額度
• 股權融資（賣出股份給投資人）
• 群眾募資
• OPR（Other People's Resources）：共享或交換的服務、設備、場地

OPT (Other People's Time):

• Employees: handle ongoing operational tasks
• Contractors: handle specific projects
• Partners: share resources and expertise
• Learning from others' experience instead of figuring it all out from scratch

OPT (Other People's Time) — 用別人的時間：

• 員工：處理持續性營運任務
• 承包商：處理特定專案
• 合作夥伴：分享資源與知識
• 從他人經驗學習，而非自己從零摸索

2.2 Operating Leverage

2.2 營運槓桿 (Operating Leverage)

The concept: Companies with high fixed costs and low variable costs have high operating leverage. Once past the break-even point, almost every additional dollar of revenue flows straight to profit.

概念： 固定成本高、變動成本低的公司有高營運槓桿。一旦過了損益兩平點，每多一筆銷售幾乎全部變成利潤。

Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) = % Change in Operating Income / % Change in Sales Volume

營運槓桿程度 (DOL) = 營業利益變動% / 銷售量變動%

Operating leverage by industry:

各產業的營運槓桿：

Industry	Operating Leverage	Why
Software companies	Very high	High dev costs, near-zero marginal cost per additional user
Airlines	High	Aircraft, crew, and routes are all fixed costs
Consulting firms	Low	Revenue directly tied to billable hours

產業	營運槓桿	原因
軟體公司	非常高	高開發成本，每多一個用戶成本趨近零
航空公司	高	飛機、機組人員、航線都是固定成本
顧問公司	低	收入直接和可計費時數掛鉤

2.3 Financial Leverage in Business

2.3 財務槓桿在事業中的角色

Optimal debt ratio varies by industry:

最佳負債比因產業而異：

Industry	Typical D/E Ratio
Technology	< 0.5
Manufacturing	0.5-1.0
Real Estate	Often > 2.0
Retail	0.8-1.2

產業	典型負債比 (D/E)
科技	< 0.5
製造	0.5-1.0
房地產	常超過 2.0
零售	0.8-1.2

The tax shield: Debt interest is tax-deductible. At a 25% marginal tax rate, $100,000 in interest expense saves $25,000 in taxes — effectively reducing the cost of debt by 25%.

稅盾效果： 債務利息可抵稅。在 25% 邊際稅率下，$100,000 利息支出可節省 $25,000 稅金，實際降低 25% 的債務成本。

When to take on debt:

• Expected return > cost of debt
• The business has stable, predictable cash flows
• Cost of capital is lower than return on investment
• Stable, mature businesses can handle more debt; volatile or early-stage ventures should rely more on equity

何時該舉債：

• 預期獲利 > 債務成本
• 事業有穩定、可預測的現金流
• 資金成本低於投資報酬率
• 穩定的成熟企業可以承受更多債務；波動或早期企業應依賴更多股權

2.4 The Franchise Model as Leverage

2.4 加盟模式 (Franchise) 作為槓桿

• The franchisor expands using franchisees' capital, not its own
• Franchisees bring local market knowledge and the hustle of owner-operators
• More locations = stronger supply chain bargaining power
• Trade-off: partial loss of operational control and brand risk

• 加盟主用加盟者的資本擴張，而非自己的
• 加盟者帶來在地市場知識與 owner-operator 的積極管理
• 更多門店 = 供應鏈議價能力更強
• 挑戰：失去部分營運控制、品牌風險

2.5 Startup Financing

2.5 創業融資

SBA Loans (U.S. Small Business Administration):

• 7(a): Up to $5 million, rates at 9.5-10.5%
• 504: Up to $5 million for real estate/equipment, 10-25 year terms
• Microloans: Up to $50,000 with more flexible terms

SBA 貸款（美國中小企業管理局）：

• 7(a)：最高 $500 萬，利率 9.5-10.5%
• 504：最高 $500 萬，用於不動產/設備，10-25 年期
• Microloans：最高 $50,000，條件更靈活

Other options: bootstrapping, angel investors, venture capital, crowdfunding, grants.

其他選項：自力更生 (Bootstrapping)、天使投資人、創投、群眾募資、補助款。

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3. Personal Leverage: Naval Ravikant's Framework

3. 個人槓桿：Naval Ravikant 的框架

The Four Types of Leverage

四種槓桿類型

Type	Description	Permission Required	Scalability
Labor	The oldest form — hiring people to work for you	Yes (people must agree)	Linear
Capital	Using money to amplify decisions	Yes (someone must give you capital)	High
Code	Software and products with near-zero marginal cost	No	Nearly infinite
Media	Books, podcasts, YouTube, social posts	No	Nearly infinite

類型	說明	是否需要許可	規模化程度
勞動力 (Labor)	最古老的形式——雇人替你工作	需要（人必須同意）	線性
資本 (Capital)	用錢來放大決策	需要（必須有人給你資本）	高
程式碼 (Code)	軟體、產品，邊際成本趨近零	不需要	近乎無限
媒體 (Media)	書籍、Podcast、YouTube、社群貼文	不需要	近乎無限

Why Code and Media Are the Most Powerful Forms of Leverage

為什麼程式碼和媒體是最強大的槓桿

• They are permissionless — all you need is a computer
• Near-zero marginal cost — "A software developer has an army of robots working for him while he sleeps"
• Infinitely replicable — one article can be read by millions, one piece of software can serve millions simultaneously

• 它們是免許可的 (Permissionless)——你只需要一台電腦
• 邊際成本趨近零——「一個軟體開發者有一支機器人軍隊，在他睡覺時替他工作」
• 可無限複製——一篇文章可以被百萬人閱讀，一個軟體可以同時服務百萬人

"Productize Yourself"

「Productize Yourself」（把自己產品化）

The framework for wealth creation:

1. Find your Specific Knowledge — something authentically yours, rooted in natural talent and genuine curiosity
2. Take on Accountability — put your name on it
3. Apply Leverage — code, media, capital, labor
4. "Escape competition through authenticity"

財富創造的框架：

1. 找到你的專屬知識 (Specific Knowledge)——真實屬於你的，追隨天生才能與真正好奇心
2. 承擔責任 (Accountability)——把你的名字放上去
3. 施加槓桿——程式碼、媒體、資本、勞動力
4. 「透過真實性逃離競爭」

The Magic Combination

魔法組合

Tech startups seem to "explode from nothing" because they stack all four types of leverage simultaneously: a small but high-output workforce (engineers) + capital (for scaling) + code (the software product) + media (content marketing).

科技新創之所以「從無到有地爆發」，是因為它們同時結合了所有四種槓桿：最少但最高產出的勞動力（工程師）+ 資本（用於擴張）+ 程式碼（軟體產品）+ 媒體（內容行銷）。

Key Quotes

關鍵語錄

"Leverage is a force multiplier for judgment. In an age of infinite leverage, judgment is the most important skill."

"If you're operating with 1,000x leverage and one person is right 80% of the time while another is right 90% of the time, the 90% person will earn hundreds of times more than the 80% person."

「槓桿是判斷力的力量倍增器。在無限槓桿的時代，判斷力是最重要的技能。」

「如果你以 1,000 倍的槓桿在運作，而某人的正確率是 80%，另一個人的正確率是 90%，那個 90% 的人得到的回報會是前者的數百倍。」

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4. Technology as Leverage

4. 科技作為槓桿

AI and Automation

AI 與自動化

• The global AI market reached ~$390 billion in 2025, projected to hit $1.8-3.5 trillion by 2030-2033
• 72% of enterprises have adopted AI technology
• Key trends: predictive analytics, hyper-personalization, AI-driven security, conversational AI, agentic AI automation

• 全球 AI 市場 2025 年達 ~$3,900 億，預計 2030-2033 年達 $1.8-3.5 兆
• 72% 的企業已採用 AI 技術
• 關鍵趨勢：預測分析、大規模個人化、AI 驅動安全、對話式 AI、AI 代理自動化

No-Code / Low-Code Platforms

No-Code / Low-Code 平台

• Market size projected to reach $187 billion
• Development cycles can be shortened by up to 80%
• Gartner predicts 70% of new SaaS applications will incorporate low-code/no-code capabilities
• Key platforms: Bubble, Zapier, n8n, Retool

• 市場規模預計達 $1,870 億
• 開發週期可縮短最高 80%
• Gartner 預測 70% 的新 SaaS 應用將包含 Low-code/No-code 功能
• 關鍵平台：Bubble、Zapier、n8n、Retool

Platform Leverage

平台槓桿

• 8 out of the 10 most valuable companies globally are platform businesses
• ~60% of unicorn companies are platform-based
• Network effects: each new user adds value for every existing user
• Examples: Apple ecosystem (hardware + services + App Store), YouTube (connecting creators and audiences)

• 全球前 10 大最有價值企業中有 8 家是平台型企業
• ~60% 的獨角獸企業是平台型
• 網路效應：每新增一個用戶，為所有現有用戶增加價值
• 例：Apple 生態系（硬體 + 服務 + App Store）、YouTube（連接創作者與觀眾）

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5. Knowledge / Skill Leverage

5. 知識 / 技能槓桿

Compound Learning

複利學習 (Compound Learning)

Like compound interest, every new piece of knowledge multiplies the utility of everything you already know. The compounding effect is strongest when you accumulate knowledge consistently in a single domain. "Every role and project doesn't just add knowledge — it adds future leverage."

如同複利，每一個新知識都乘以之前所有知識的效用。在單一領域持續累積知識，複利效果最明顯。「每一個角色和專案不只增加知識，更增加未來的槓桿。」

T-Shaped Skills

T 型技能 (T-shaped Skills)

• The vertical "|": deep expertise in one domain
• The horizontal "—": broad knowledge across many fields
• Research consistently shows T-shaped skills create disproportionate value
• Buffett as an example: deep expertise in finance + wide-ranging reading across business, psychology, and history

• 垂直的「|」：某一領域的深度專精
• 水平的「—」：多領域的廣泛知識
• 研究一致顯示 T 型能力創造不成比例的價值
• 巴菲特的例子：金融深度專精 + 橫跨商業、心理學、歷史的廣泛閱讀

The Asymmetric Returns of Specific Knowledge

專屬知識的不對稱回報

Naval: "If you have 1,000x leverage, and one person is right 80% of the time while another is right 90%, the 90% person gets paid hundreds of times more."

Naval：「如果你有 1,000 倍的槓桿，一個正確率 80% 的人和一個正確率 90% 的人，後者得到的報酬是前者的數百倍。」

Expertise + leverage = exponential (not linear) returns.

專業知識 + 槓桿 = 指數型（非線性）回報。

Network Effects in Professional Relationships

人脈網路效應

• Professional networks significantly influence salary growth, career trajectory, and leadership opportunities
• Longitudinal studies find that networking positively correlates with both current salary levels and salary growth rates
• Sam Altman: "The size of your network of genuinely talented people often becomes the limiting factor on what you can accomplish."

• 專業人脈顯著影響薪資成長、職涯軌跡和領導機會
• 縱向研究發現：建立人脈與當前薪資水平及薪資成長率都有正相關
• Sam Altman：「你認識的真正有才華的人的網路規模，往往成為你能完成什麼的限制因素。」

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6. Risk Management

6. 風險管理

6.1 Taleb's Barbell Strategy

6.1 Taleb 的槓鈴策略 (Barbell Strategy)

The allocation:

• 85-90% in ultra-safe assets (cash, treasuries)
• 10-15% in the highest-risk, highest-reward speculations (e.g. deep out-of-the-money options, startup investments)
• Avoid the "fragile middle" (medium-risk investments)

配置方式：

• 85-90% 放在超安全資產（現金、國債）
• 10-15% 放在最高風險、最高回報的投機（如深度價外選擇權、新創投資）
• 避開「脆弱的中間地帶」（中等風險投資）

Why it works:

• Maximum loss on the safe end is known and capped
• Upside on the speculative end is unlimited
• "Antifragile" — gains from disorder
• Universa Investments (Taleb/Spitznagel's fund) grew from $300 million in 2007 to over $11 billion by 2022

為什麼有效：

• 安全端的最大損失已知且有限
• 投機端的上漲潛力無限
• 「反脆弱」——從混亂中獲益
• Universa Investments（Taleb/Spitznagel 的基金）從 2007 年的 $3 億成長到 2022 年的超過 $110 億

6.2 Historical Blowups from Excessive Leverage

6.2 歷史上槓桿失控的案例

LTCM (1998):

• Founded by Nobel laureates, early annualized returns of 21-43%
• Leveraged $5 billion in equity to $125 billion in borrowings + $1 trillion in derivatives (notional value)
• After Russia's debt default, lost $4.6 billion in less than 4 months
• Required a $3.6 billion Fed-coordinated bailout

LTCM (1998)：

• 由諾貝爾獎得主創立，早期年化報酬 21-43%
• 用 $50 億權益槓桿到 $1,250 億借款 + $1 兆衍生品（名目價值）
• 俄羅斯債務違約後，不到 4 個月虧損 $46 億
• 需要聯準會協調的 $36 億紓困

2008 Global Financial Crisis:

• Same forces — excessive leverage (30:1 common among major institutions), opaque derivatives, over-reliance on models
• Lehman Brothers collapsed; Bear Stearns and AIG required bailouts

2008 金融海嘯：

• 同樣的力量——過度槓桿（主要機構常見 30:1）、不透明衍生品、過度依賴模型
• 雷曼兄弟倒閉、Bear Stearns 和 AIG 需要紓困

Archegos Capital (2021):

• Failed to meet margin calls
• Major banks forced to liquidate billions in positions
• ViacomCBS and Discovery shares each plunged ~27%

Archegos Capital (2021)：

• 無法滿足保證金追繳
• 主要銀行被迫清算數十億資產
• ViacomCBS 和 Discovery 股價各暴跌 ~27%

6.3 Warning Signs of Over-Leverage

6.3 過度槓桿的警訊

1. Leverage ratios far above historical norms
2. Over-reliance on models that assume "normal" conditions
3. Off-balance-sheet exposure through derivatives
4. Moral hazard from expectations of being bailed out
5. Complacency bred by a long winning streak

1. 槓桿比率遠超歷史正常值
2. 過度依賴假設「正常」條件的數學模型
3. 透過衍生品的表外曝險
4. 因預期被紓困而產生的道德風險
5. 持續獲利帶來的自滿

6.4 When to Use vs. When to Avoid Leverage

6.4 何時該用 vs 不該用槓桿

Use higher leverage when:

• You have a proven, consistently profitable edge
• You understand and can manage the risk
• The opportunity has favorable asymmetry (limited downside, unlimited upside)
• You have sufficient reserves to weather drawdowns

使用較高槓桿的前提：

• 你有經過驗證的、持續獲利的優勢
• 你理解並能管理風險
• 機會具有有利的不對稱性（有限虧損、無限上漲）
• 你有足夠的儲備承受回撤

Avoid or reduce leverage when:

• During high volatility or around major news events
• If you are a beginner
• When your risk tolerance is low
• For long-term, passively held positions
• When operations are inefficient (leverage amplifies inefficiency too)

避免或降低槓桿：

• 高波動或重大新聞事件期間
• 如果你是初學者
• 風險承受度低時
• 長期、被動持有的部位
• 營運效率不佳時（槓桿也會放大低效率）

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7. Practical Frameworks

7. 實用框架

7.1 The Leverage Stack

7.1 槓桿堆疊 (Leverage Stack)

Different types of leverage don't add — they multiply. Stack financial leverage + human leverage + tech leverage + knowledge leverage + network leverage → exponential, not linear, growth.

不同類型的槓桿不是相加，而是相乘。疊加金融槓桿 + 人力槓桿 + 科技槓桿 + 知識槓桿 + 人脈槓桿 → 指數型而非線性成長。

Recommended stacking order:

1. First, reach profitability on your own (leverage amplifies whatever process is already in place — whether efficient or not)
2. Add knowledge leverage (compound learning, deep domain expertise)
3. Add technology / systems leverage (automation, tools)
4. Add human leverage (hiring, delegating)
5. Add financial leverage (debt, investors)
6. Add network / media leverage (brand, audience, relationships)

建議堆疊順序：

1. 先自力達到獲利（槓桿會放大已有的流程——不管是高效還是低效的）
2. 加入知識槓桿（複利學習、專業領域深耕）
3. 加入科技/系統槓桿（自動化、工具）
4. 加入人力槓桿（招募、委派）
5. 加入金融槓桿（債務、投資人）
6. 加入人脈/媒體槓桿（品牌、受眾、關係）

7.2 Core Risk Management Principles

7.2 核心風險管理原則

• Never risk more than 1-2% of capital on a single position
• Always use stop losses
• Diversify across asset classes
• Maintain cash reserves for margin requirements
• Practice with paper trading before committing real capital
• Reach profitability first, then apply leverage

• 單一部位風險不超過本金的 1-2%
• 永遠使用停損
• 跨資產分散
• 維持現金儲備以應對保證金需求
• 用模擬交易練習，再投入真實資本
• 先自力獲利，再施加槓桿

7.3 Tax Advantages of Leverage

7.3 槓桿的稅務優勢

Type	Tax Advantages
Real Estate	Mortgage interest deduction, depreciation, 1031 exchanges, QBI deduction
Business Debt	Interest expense is tax-deductible, reducing effective cost of debt by the marginal tax rate

類型	稅務優勢
房地產	房貸利息扣除、折舊、1031 交換、QBI 扣除
商業債務	利息支出抵稅，以邊際稅率降低實際債務成本

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8. Leverage Across Different Areas of Life

8. 不同人生面向的槓桿

Career

職涯

Sam Altman's framework: "Move toward a career with compounding effects... your rate of learning should always be high. As your career progresses, each unit of work should generate increasingly more results."

Sam Altman 的框架：「朝向有複利效果的職涯發展……你的學習速率應該永遠很高。隨著職涯進展，每一單位的工作應該產生越來越多的結果。」

Build career leverage through:

• Capital, technology, brand, network effects, managing others
• "Hard work compounds like interest — the earlier you start, the longer you have to reap the rewards"

透過以下方式建立職涯槓桿：

• 資本、科技、品牌、網路效應、管理他人
• 「努力工作像利息一樣複利，越早開始，收益時間越長」

The Compound Effect of Habits

習慣的複利效應

The compound effect transforms five core areas:

1. Mindset: daily thought patterns accumulate into belief systems
2. Career / Finance: daily small actions compound into wealth
3. Relationships: maintain a 5:1 ratio of positive to negative interactions
4. Physical health: daily exercise and nutrition decisions shape long-term health
5. Mental / Emotional health: daily self-care compounds into resilience

複利效應轉化五個核心領域：

1. 心態：每天的思維模式累積成信念系統
2. 職涯/財務：每天的小行動累積成財富
3. 人際關係：維持 5:1 的正面 vs 負面互動比率
4. 身體健康：每天的運動與飲食決定長期健康
5. 心理/情緒健康：每天的自我照顧累積成韌性

Networking as Leverage

人脈作為槓桿

• Make networking a daily habit
• Consistent, genuine interactions build trust that compounds over time
• "The size of your network of genuinely talented people often becomes the limiting factor on what you can accomplish"

• 讓建立人脈成為日常習慣
• 持續、真誠的互動建立隨時間複利的信任
• 「你認識的真正有才華的人的網路規模，往往成為你能完成什麼的限制因素」

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Summary: Leverage Type Cheat Sheet

總結：槓桿類型速查表

Type	Examples	Permission Required	Risk Level	Scalability
Labor	Employees	Yes	Medium	Linear
Capital	Margin, loans, investors	Yes	High	High
Code	Software, SaaS, apps	No	Low-Medium	Nearly infinite
Media	Content, podcasts, YouTube	No	Low	Nearly infinite
Operating Leverage	High fixed cost / low variable cost businesses	No	Medium-High	Extremely high past break-even
Real Estate	Mortgages (20% down = 5x)	Yes (bank approval)	Medium	Moderate
Platforms	Building on YouTube, App Store	Partial	Low-Medium	Very high
Knowledge	T-shaped skills, compound learning	No	Very low	Compounds over time
Network	Professional relationships	No	Very low	Compounds over time

類型	範例	需要許可	風險等級	規模化
勞動力	雇員	是	中	線性
資本	融資、貸款、投資人	是	高	高
程式碼	軟體、SaaS、App	否	低-中	近乎無限
媒體	內容、Podcast、YouTube	否	低	近乎無限
營運槓桿	高固定成本/低變動成本事業	否	中-高	損益兩平後極高
房地產	房貸（20% 頭期 = 5x）	是（銀行核准）	中	中等
平台	在 YouTube、App Store 上建造	部分	低-中	非常高
知識	T 型技能、複利學習	否	極低	隨時間複利
人脈	專業關係	否	極低	隨時間複利

The core principle of leverage: Leverage amplifies everything — competence and incompetence, gains and losses. The right path to using leverage starts with building sound judgment and proven systems, and only then applying amplification.

槓桿的核心原則： 槓桿放大一切——能力與無能、獲利與虧損。正確使用槓桿的路徑，從建立健全的判斷力和經過驗證的系統開始，然後才施加放大。