Economic Cycles and Long-Term Investment Strategies
經濟週期與長期投資策略
This article isn't about timing short-term trades. It's about using your understanding of the Economic Cycle to make better long-term investment decisions and reduce risk.
這篇不是在講短期交易的進出場時機，而是如何利用對經濟週期 (Economic Cycle) 的理解，在長期投資中做出更好的決策、減少風險。
1. Economic Cycle Basics: Four Phases
1. 經濟週期基礎：四個階段
The economic cycle consists of four phases. While the length and magnitude differ each time, the pattern keeps repeating.
經濟週期由四個階段組成，雖然長度與幅度每次不同，但模式持續重複。
Four Phases at a Glance
四階段概覽
| Phase | Characteristics | Typical Duration |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion | Accelerating GDP growth, low inflation, low interest rates, rising corporate earnings | Avg. ~65 months (post-WWII) |
| Peak | Demand exceeds supply, inflation heats up, central bank starts raising rates, unemployment at historic lows | ~18 months (late cycle) |
| Contraction / Recession | Negative GDP growth, layoffs, rising unemployment, falling prices | Avg. ~11 months |
| Trough | Economy hits bottom, demand and spending at their lowest, central bank cuts rates to stimulate | Transitional phase |
| 階段 | 特徵 | 典型持續時間 |
|---|---|---|
| 擴張 (Expansion) | GDP 成長加速、低通膨、低利率、企業獲利上升 | 平均 ~65 個月（二戰後） |
| 高峰 (Peak) | 需求超過供給、通膨升溫、央行開始升息、失業率極低 | ~18 個月（晚期週期） |
| 收縮 / 衰退 (Contraction) | GDP 負成長、企業裁員、失業率上升、價格下跌 | 平均 ~11 個月 |
| 谷底 (Trough) | 經濟最低點、需求與支出降至最低、央行降息刺激 | 過渡階段 |
Key Stats (Post-WWII U.S.):
- 12 complete cycles
- Average cycle length: ~6 years
- Longest expansion: 128 months (2009-2020)
- Shortest recession: 2 months (2020 COVID)
關鍵數據（二戰後美國）：
- 共經歷 12 次完整週期
- 平均一個週期約 6 年
- 最長擴張期：128 個月（2009-2020）
- 最短衰退期：2 個月（2020 COVID）
Asset Class Performance Across Phases
各資產類別在不同階段的表現
| Phase | Stocks | Bonds | Real Estate | Commodities | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Expansion | Strongest (highest annualized return) | Good (corporate bonds) | Recovering | Neutral | Weak |
| Mid Expansion | Good (annualized ~14%) | Weakening | Strong | Rising | Weak |
| Late / Peak | Moderate (annualized ~5%) | Poor (rates rising) | Slowing | Strongest | Neutral |
| Recession | Poor (annualized ~-15%) | Strong (rates falling) | Declining | Weak | Safe haven |
| 階段 | 股票 | 債券 | 房地產 | 商品 | 現金 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 早期擴張 | 最強（年化報酬最高） | 好（公司債） | 復甦中 | 中性 | 弱 |
| 中期擴張 | 好（年化 ~14%） | 轉弱 | 強 | 上升 | 弱 |
| 晚期 / 高峰 | 溫和（年化 ~5%） | 差（利率上升） | 放緩 | 最強 | 中性 |
| 衰退 | 差（年化 ~-15%） | 強（利率下降） | 下跌 | 弱 | 避風港 |
Source: Fidelity Research (1962-2020)
資料來源：Fidelity 研究（1962-2020）
2. Sector Rotation Strategy
2. 產業輪動策略 (Sector Rotation)
The stock market leads the real economy -- markets rally before the economy improves and drop before recessions officially begin.
股市的週期領先實體經濟——市場在經濟好轉前就先漲，在經濟衰退前就先跌。
Best and Worst Performing Sectors by Phase
各階段最佳 / 最差產業
| Phase | Best Performers | Worst Performers |
|---|---|---|
| Early Expansion | Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Real Estate, Industrials | Utilities, Consumer Staples |
| Mid Expansion | Tech, Industrials, Communication Services | Utilities, Materials |
| Late / Peak | Energy, Materials, Healthcare, Consumer Staples | Tech, Consumer Discretionary |
| Recession | Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare | Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials |
| 階段 | 表現最佳的產業 | 表現最差的產業 |
|---|---|---|
| 早期擴張 | 科技、非必需消費、金融、房地產、工業 | 公用事業、必需消費 |
| 中期擴張 | 科技、工業、通訊服務 | 公用事業、原物料 |
| 晚期 / 高峰 | 能源、原物料、醫療保健、必需消費 | 科技、非必需消費 |
| 衰退 | 必需消費、公用事業、醫療保健 | 金融、非必需消費、工業 |
Cyclical vs. Defensive
週期性 vs 防禦性
- Cyclical sectors (Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials): outperform during expansions, high volatility during recessions
- Defensive sectors (Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities): stable during recessions, relatively muted during expansions
- Factor performance: Late cycle favors Quality; early recovery favors Value; expansion favors Small-cap with positive excess returns
- 週期性產業（科技、非必需消費、金融、工業）：擴張期表現好，衰退波動大
- 防禦性產業（醫療保健、必需消費、公用事業）：衰退期穩定，擴張期表現相對遜色
- 因子表現：晚期週期 Quality（高品質）表現最佳；早期復甦 Value（價值）表現突出；擴張期 Small-cap（小型股）有正超額報酬
3. Key Economic Indicators
3. 關鍵經濟指標
To determine where we are in the cycle, you need to watch two types of indicators:
判斷目前處於週期的哪個階段，需要觀察兩類指標：
Leading Indicators (Predicting the Future)
領先指標（預測未來）
Yield Curve -- The Most Reliable Recession Predictor
- An inversion of the 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread (short-term rates > long-term rates) has successfully predicted every U.S. recession since 1960
- Accuracy of ~87.5%, leading recessions by 12-15 months on average
- Note: Within 12 months after the inversion ends (curve normalizes), the probability of recession exceeds 50%
殖利率曲線 (Yield Curve) — 最可靠的衰退預測指標
- 10 年期與 3 個月期國債利差倒掛（短期利率 > 長期利率），自 1960 年以來成功預測了每一次美國衰退
- 準確率約 87.5%，平均領先衰退 12-15 個月
- 注意：倒掛結束（曲線恢復正常）之後的 12 個月內，衰退發生的機率超過 50%
PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
- Above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction
- Only several consecutive months below 50 signal a genuine slowdown
PMI（採購經理人指數）
- 50 以上 = 擴張、50 以下 = 收縮
- 連續數月低於 50 才是真正的放緩訊號
Other Important Leading Indicators
- Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI): a composite of 10 leading indicators
- Consumer Confidence Index
- Building Permits
- Sahm Rule: When the 3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, a recession signal is triggered (11 for 11 since 1950)
其他重要領先指標
- Conference Board 領先經濟指標 (LEI)：10 項領先指標的綜合
- 消費者信心指數
- 建築許可證
- Sahm Rule：當失業率 3 個月移動平均比過去 12 個月低點上升 0.5 個百分點，觸發衰退訊號（自 1950 年以來 11/11 次命中）
Lagging Indicators (Confirming What Already Happened)
落後指標（確認已發生的事）
| Indicator | Description |
|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | Rises 2-3 quarters after a recession begins (layoffs have a lag) |
| CPI (Consumer Price Index) | Reflects inflation that has already occurred; useful for anticipating central bank policy moves |
| Corporate Earnings | Only reflected after quarterly reports; used to confirm recession severity and recovery speed |
| 指標 | 說明 |
|---|---|
| 失業率 | 經濟衰退開始後 2-3 季才上升（企業裁員有延遲） |
| CPI（消費者物價指數） | 反映已經發生的通膨，可預判央行貨幣政策走向 |
| 企業獲利 | 季報揭露後才反映，用來確認衰退嚴重程度與復甦速度 |
How to Interpret
如何解讀
- One month of bad data is usually noise; 3-6 months of multiple indicators deteriorating simultaneously is a real signal
- Don't look at any single indicator in isolation -- look for convergence across multiple uncorrelated indicators
- Focus on trends and direction, not any single data point
- Leading indicators help you "anticipate"; lagging indicators help you "confirm"
- 一個月的壞數據通常是雜訊；3-6 個月多項指標同步惡化才是訊號
- 不要看單一指標，要看多項不相關指標的「收斂」
- 關注趨勢與方向，而非單一數字
- 領先指標幫你「預判」，落後指標幫你「確認」
4. Adjusting Asset Allocation by Cycle Phase
4. 依週期調整資產配置
Recommended Allocation by Phase
各階段建議配置
Early Expansion (Recovery):
- Overweight: Stocks (especially cyclical/growth), corporate bonds
- Underweight: Cash, government bonds
- Preferred factor: Value (strong rebound potential)
早期擴張（復甦）：
- 加碼：股票（尤其週期性/成長股）、公司債
- 減碼：現金、公債
- 偏好因子：Value（價值股反彈力道強）
Mid Expansion:
- Maintain: Balanced equity exposure
- Add: Some commodity allocation (inflation emerging)
- Reduce: Bond duration (rising rates hurt long bonds)
- Preferred factor: Small/Mid-cap
中期擴張：
- 維持：均衡股票曝險
- 加入：部分商品配置（通膨開始）
- 減少：債券存續期間（升息傷害長債）
- 偏好因子：Small/Mid-cap
Late Cycle (Pre-Peak):
- Reduce: Overall equity beta; rotate from cyclical to defensive
- Prefer: High-quality companies (Healthcare, Pharma)
- Increase: Commodities, inflation-protected assets
- Raise: Cash position (building "dry powder" for the next opportunity)
- Preferred factor: Quality
晚期（高峰前）：
- 降低：整體股票 Beta，從週期性轉向防禦性
- 偏好：高品質企業（醫療、製藥）
- 增加：商品、抗通膨資產
- 提高：現金部位（為下一次機會準備「彈藥」）
- 偏好因子：Quality
Recession:
- Overweight: Treasuries, high-quality fixed income, cash
- Maintain: Defensive stocks (Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare)
- Deploy: Use cash to buy discounted assets -- this is the opportunity phase
衰退：
- 加碼：公債、高品質固定收益、現金
- 維持：防禦性股票（必需消費、公用事業、醫療）
- 部署：用現金買入折價資產——這是機會階段
Rebalancing Principles
再平衡原則
- Frequency: Annual rebalancing works best for most people
- Trigger: Execute when any asset class drifts more than +/-5% from target
- Tax efficiency: Rebalance within tax-advantaged accounts whenever possible (saves ~44 bps/year)
- Cash flow rebalancing: Use new contributions to bring allocations back to target, rather than selling
- 頻率：每年再平衡一次，對多數人效果最佳
- 觸發點：當資產類別偏離目標超過 ±5% 時執行
- 稅務效率：盡量在免稅帳戶中再平衡（每年可省約 44 個基點）
- 現金流再平衡：用新投入的錢把配置拉回目標，而非賣出
5. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) vs. Tactical Allocation
5. 定期定額 (DCA) vs 戰術性配置
What the Research Says
研究怎麼說
Lump-Sum Investing Usually Beats DCA:
- Vanguard study: Lump-sum outperformed 68% of the time across global markets (1976-2022)
- When lump-sum wins, it earns ~8% more on average; when it loses, it loses ~4% less
整筆投入 (Lump-Sum) 通常優於 DCA：
- Vanguard 研究：整筆投入在全球市場中 68% 的時間表現更好（1976-2022）
- 整筆贏時平均多賺 ~8%；輸時平均少虧 ~4%
But DCA Has Significant Risk-Reduction Value:
- Narrows the range of outcomes -- lower median returns but fewer extreme losses
- Provides meaningful downside protection in high-volatility markets
- Reduces "regret risk"
但 DCA 有重要的風險降低價值：
- 縮小結果的範圍，降低中位數報酬但減少極端損失
- 在高波動市場中提供顯著的風險保護
- 減少「後悔風險」
Cycle-Aware Tactical Allocation Can Improve Returns:
- Reducing equity weight when the CAPE ratio (Shiller P/E) is elevated can beat a static allocation
- Increasing equity exposure in undervalued markets is equally effective
週期感知的戰術配置可以提升報酬：
- 當 CAPE 比率（席勒本益比）偏高時，降低股票權重可以打敗靜態配置
- 在低估值市場加碼股票，同樣有效
The Most Important Finding -- The 95.6% Rule:
- A landmark study found that strategic asset allocation (your overall asset mix) explains 95.6% of return variance
- Market timing and stock picking explain only ~4.4%
- Conclusion: Getting your overall allocation right matters far more than trying to time the market precisely
最重要的發現 — 95.6% 法則：
- 一項經典研究發現：投資策略性配置（你的整體資產比例）解釋了 95.6% 的報酬變異
- 擇時與選股只解釋了約 4.4%
- 結論：把整體配置做對，比試圖精準抓時間點重要得多
Best Practice
最佳做法
For most individual investors, the ideal approach is a combination:
- Maintain a strategic core allocation
- Deploy new capital via DCA (spread over no more than 6 months)
- Make moderate tactical adjustments based on the cycle (within +/-10-15% of core allocation)
對多數一般投資人而言，最理想的方式是組合：
- 維持一個戰略性核心配置
- 新資金用 DCA 投入（最長不超過 6 個月分批）
- 根據週期做溫和的戰術調整（偏離核心配置 ±10-15% 以內）
6. Historical Case Studies
6. 歷史案例
The 2000 Dot-com Bubble
2000 網路泡沫 (Dot-com Bubble)
- The Nasdaq surged 400% between 1995 and 2000, with P/E ratios reaching 200
- Peaked at 5,048 on March 10, 2000
- By October 2002, it had fallen to 1,139 -- a 77% decline
- The Nasdaq didn't make a new all-time high until April 2015 (15 years later)
- Nasdaq 在 1995-2000 間上漲 400%，本益比高達 200
- 2000 年 3 月 10 日觸頂 5,048 點
- 到 2002 年 10 月跌至 1,139 點——下跌 77%
- Nasdaq 直到 2015 年 4 月才創新高（15 年後）
Signals a Cycle-Aware Investor Would Have Caught:
- Massive insider selling (insiders sold 23x more shares than they bought in the month before the crash)
- Extreme valuations (P/E of 200, completely detached from fundamentals)
- Fed rate hikes (end of the easy-money era)
週期感知投資人的訊號：
- 內部人士大量拋售（崩盤前一個月，內部人賣出股數是買入的 23 倍）
- 極端估值（P/E 200，完全脫離基本面）
- Fed 升息（寬鬆貨幣時代結束）
The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
2008 金融海嘯 (GFC)
- The S&P 500 fell ~57% from its peak
- A systemic crisis rooted in excessive leverage at financial institutions
- S&P 500 從高點下跌約 57%
- 系統性危機，源自金融機構的過度槓桿
What Cycle-Aware Investors Did:
- Warren Buffett: "Be greedy when others are fearful" -- invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs preferred stock (10% yield) and $3 billion in GE
- John Paulson: Saw through the subprime bubble, shorted MBS, and his fund returned over 400% in 2007
- A retiree's case study: With a 50% stocks / 40% bonds / 10% cash allocation, this investor stopped selling equities during the crash, lived off cash and bond income, and rebalanced into stocks at the lows. A $1M portfolio in 2008 grew to $1.2M by 2018
懂週期的人怎麼做：
- 巴菲特：「在別人恐懼時貪婪」——買入 Goldman Sachs 50 億美元優先股（10% 利率）、GE 30 億美元
- John Paulson：看穿次貸泡沫，做空 MBS，2007 年基金報酬超過 400%
- 一位退休人士的案例：50% 股 / 40% 債 / 10% 現金配置，崩盤時停止賣股，靠現金和債息生活，在低點再平衡買入股票。2008 年 100 萬的投資組合，到 2018 年成長至 120 萬
The 2020 COVID Crash
2020 COVID 崩盤
- The S&P 500 plunged 34% in just 33 days -- the fastest bear market in history
- The market bottomed on March 23 -- before the stimulus bill, before peak unemployment, before any vaccine
- Within 3 months of the bottom, the S&P 500 had rallied 45%, and was up ~70% by year-end
- Panicked investors fled to money market funds ($4 trillion ballooned to $5.3 trillion), and most of them missed the subsequent doubling
- S&P 500 在 33 天內下跌 34%——史上最快的熊市
- 市場在 3 月 23 日觸底——早於紓困法案、早於失業高峰、早於任何疫苗
- 觸底後 3 個月 S&P 500 反彈 45%，年底上漲約 70%
- 恐慌的投資人將資金撤入貨幣市場基金（從 4 兆暴增至 5.3 兆），大部分錯過了隨後的翻倍行情
Key Takeaways:
- Average 12-month return following the last 10 recessions: 38-50%
- Markets always recover -- but the timeline varies (Nasdaq took 76 trading days after COVID; the S&P 500 took 895 trading days after 2008)
- To beat the 9% buy-and-hold return over the past 150 years, an investor would need to correctly predict 77% of market turning points -- virtually impossible
關鍵教訓：
- 過去 10 次衰退後 12 個月的平均報酬：38-50%
- 市場永遠會復甦——但復甦時間不同（COVID 後 Nasdaq 花 76 個交易日，2008 後 S&P 500 花 895 個交易日）
- 要打敗 150 年來 9% 的買入持有報酬，投資人需要成功預測 77% 的市場轉折——幾乎不可能
7. Risk Management: Using Cycle Knowledge to Protect Your Portfolio
7. 風險管理：利用週期知識保護資產
Core Principles
核心原則
- Build Cash Reserves During Expansions
- Maintain 3-6 months of emergency funds
- Build a "war chest" -- capital specifically earmarked for recession-era opportunities
- Those with adequate reserves can buy when others are forced to sell
- 在擴張期累積現金
- 維持 3-6 個月緊急備用金
- 建立「彈藥庫」——專門為衰退期的機會準備的資金
- 有充足儲備的人，能在別人被迫賣出時買入
- Think Counter-Cyclically
- Be aggressive during recessions (assets are cheap, competition is thin)
- Be conservative during late expansions (valuations are stretched, risk is elevated)
- 逆週期思維
- 在衰退期積極（資產便宜、競爭減弱）
- 在晚期擴張保守（估值過高、風險升高）
- Tilt Toward Quality in Late Cycle
- PIMCO research: Quality stocks deliver the best risk-adjusted returns in late cycle
- Focus on low-cyclicality, high-quality companies
- 晚期週期偏向高品質
- PIMCO 研究：Quality 股票在晚期週期有最佳的風險調整報酬
- 聚焦低週期性、高品質企業
- Monitor Leading Indicators as an Early Warning System
- Build a dashboard tracking credit conditions, asset valuations, and policy trends
- Multiple indicators deteriorating simultaneously for 3-6 months = go defensive
- 監控領先指標作為預警系統
- 建立追蹤信用狀況、資產估值、政策趨勢的儀表板
- 多項指標同時惡化 3-6 個月 → 轉防禦
- Remember That Markets Are Forward-Looking
- Stock prices reflect expectations, not the present
- Markets bottom before the worst economic data arrives
- By the time the news is at its darkest, the best buying opportunity has usually passed
- 記住市場是前瞻性的
- 股價反映的是預期，不是當下
- 市場在最壞的經濟數據出現之前就觸底
- 等到新聞最糟糕時，最佳買點通常已過
8. Practical Frameworks
8. 實用框架
Framework 1: Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio
框架一：Ray Dalio 全天候投資組合 (All Weather Portfolio)
Core idea: Don't try to predict the future -- prepare for every possible scenario.
核心理念： 不試圖預測未來，而是為所有可能的情境做好準備。
Four Economic Scenarios and Corresponding Assets:
四種經濟情境與對應資產：
| Scenario | Favorable Assets |
|---|---|
| Rising growth + low inflation | Stocks |
| Rising growth + high inflation | Commodities |
| Falling growth + low inflation / deflation | Long-term bonds |
| Falling growth + high inflation | Gold / Commodities / TIPS |
| 情境 | 有利資產 |
|---|---|
| 成長上升 + 低通膨 | 股票 |
| 成長上升 + 高通膨 | 商品 |
| 成長下降 + 低通膨/通縮 | 長期債券 |
| 成長下降 + 高通膨 | 黃金/商品/TIPS |
Standard Allocation:
- 30% Stocks (e.g., S&P 500)
- 40% Long-term Treasuries (20+ years)
- 15% Intermediate-term Treasuries (7-10 years)
- 7.5% Commodities
- 7.5% Gold
標準配置：
- 30% 股票（如 S&P 500）
- 40% 長期公債（20 年以上）
- 15% 中期公債（7-10 年）
- 7.5% 商品
- 7.5% 黃金
Performance: Annualized return of 9.7% from 1996-2020 (vs. 7.6% for the S&P 500 over the same period), with far smaller maximum drawdowns than an all-equity portfolio. Even posted a positive return during the 2008 GFC.
績效： 1996-2020 年年化報酬 9.7%（同期 S&P 500 為 7.6%），最大回撤遠小於純股票。2008 金融海嘯期間甚至產生正報酬。
Dalio's quote: "With 5 good, uncorrelated return streams, properly balanced for risk... I won't reduce returns, but I can reduce risk by up to 80%."
Dalio 金句： 「5 個好的、不相關的報酬來源，做好風險平衡……我不會降低報酬，但可以降低高達 80% 的風險。」
Framework 2: Howard Marks' Market Cycle Approach
框架二：Howard Marks 市場週期方法
Core idea: "We may never know where we're going, but we'd better have a good idea of where we are."
核心理念： 「我們永遠不知道要去哪裡，但一定要知道現在在哪裡。」
The Pendulum Metaphor:
- Investor psychology swings between two extremes: greed vs. fear, optimism vs. pessimism
- Markets rarely rest at the midpoint -- most of the time, they're either above or below average
- An overshoot in one direction inevitably sets the stage for a swing in the other
鐘擺比喻：
- 投資人心理在兩個極端之間擺盪：貪婪 ↔ 恐懼、樂觀 ↔ 悲觀
- 市場很少停在中間——大部分時間不是在平均之上就是之下
- 一個方向的過度，必然為反向擺盪埋下伏筆
Two Key Questions:
- How are things priced right now? (Quantitative -- valuations vs. historical averages)
- How are the investors around you behaving? (Qualitative -- risk appetite, level of complacency)
兩個關鍵問題：
- 現在的定價如何？（定量——估值 vs 歷史平均）
- 周圍的投資人行為如何？（定性——風險偏好、自滿程度）
How to Respond:
- Elevated valuations + widespread optimism = tilt defensive
- Fear dominant + prices reflecting despair = tilt aggressive
如何回應：
- 估值偏高 + 樂觀瀰漫 → 偏防禦
- 恐懼主導 + 價格反映絕望 → 偏積極
Marks' quote: "The biggest source of risk is the belief that there is no risk."
Marks 金句： 「風險最大的來源，就是相信沒有風險。」
Framework 3: The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock
框架三：美林投資時鐘 (Merrill Lynch Investment Clock)
Using GDP growth and CPI inflation as two axes, the economy is divided into four quadrants:
以 GDP 成長與 CPI 通膨為兩軸，將經濟分為四個象限：
| Quadrant | Growth | Inflation | Best Asset | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I - Deflationary Recovery | Low / falling | Low / falling | Bonds | Central bank cutting rates; buy long-duration bonds |
| II - Recovery | Rising | Low | Stocks | Easing policy taking effect; equities deliver strongest excess returns |
| III - Overheating | High | Rising | Commodities | Capacity constraints; real assets outperform |
| IV - Stagflation | Falling | High | Cash | Capital preservation; wait for the cycle to reset |
| 象限 | 成長 | 通膨 | 最佳資產 | 建議 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I 通縮復甦 | 低/下降 | 低/下降 | 債券 | 央行降息；買長天期債券 |
| II 復甦 | 上升 | 低 | 股票 | 寬鬆政策發揮作用；股票超額報酬最強 |
| III 過熱 | 高 | 上升 | 商品 | 產能限制；實物資產勝出 |
| IV 滯脹 | 下降 | 高 | 現金 | 保本；等待週期重置 |
Combining All Three Frameworks
三個框架的綜合應用
These three frameworks are complementary, not competing:
這三個框架是互補的，不是競爭的：
- Dalio (All Weather) --> Build a structurally resilient core allocation
- Marks (Market Cycles) --> Read the behavioral signals; calibrate your risk appetite
- Merrill Clock --> Macro mapping to decide which asset class to overweight or underweight
- Dalio（全天候）→ 建立結構性韌性的核心配置
- Marks（市場週期）→ 感知行為面，校準風險偏好
- 美林時鐘→ 總經面映射，決定加碼/減碼哪種資產
Practical Synthesis for Individual Investors:
- Start with Dalio as the core (diversified across stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold)
- Use the Merrill Clock to identify the current economic quadrant
- Use Marks' framework to assess whether market sentiment and valuations are at extremes
- Make moderate tactical adjustments (within +/-10-15% of core allocation)
- Rebalance annually or whenever drift exceeds 5%
一般投資人的實務綜合：
- 以 Dalio 為核心（股票、債券、商品、黃金分散配置）
- 用美林時鐘判斷目前在哪個經濟象限
- 用 Marks 框架評估市場情緒/估值是否走向極端
- 做溫和的戰術調整（偏離核心配置 ±10-15% 以內）
- 每年或偏離超過 5% 時再平衡